The rise of Africa: How hopeful should we be?
Ten years ago the Economist magazine dubbed Africa “the hopeless continent.” Last December, it apologized (more or less), publishing a series of articles on the topic of “Africa rising” and stating that the “hopeless” label had been regrettable.
Regrettable, perhaps, but also untrue, for Africa is now burgeoning – not only in the traditional commodities industries but also in consumer businesses catering to a new middle class. A new term is entering the financial lexicon – the notion of the lion economy.
Of course, important questions still remain. Do the successes that we’re seeing mark an era of sustainable growth, or should we be more cautious? How likely is it that we’re witnessing a false dawn?
Compared with Europe and the US, the growth rate across Africa is impressive. As the Economist reports, at least a dozen African economies have expanded by more than 6% in the past six years – and Ethiopia, for instance, will grow by 7.5% this year. While the continent’s well known natural resources contribute to this boom, just one third of the shift is due to mining. “Everything is growing, not just commodities,” an entrepreneur, Mo Ibrahim told the magazine.
Part of this change is demographic. Africa has a young population: the median age there is 20, compared with 30 in Asia and 40 in Europe. As those young people mature and start to work, they will contribute to further productivity. That is, if all goes well. Young people without jobs are a problematic and potentially dangerous constituency. Growth must continue if the generation of twenty-somethings is to flourish.
If Africa is to attain its true potential, what it needs most of all is leadership and here the New York Forum sees cause for optimism. At a conference in Medays last November several impressive figures from the business and political community were present – individuals like Lamido Sanusi, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, and Dr. Cheick Modibo Diarra, chairman of Microsoft Africa. The discussion about the role of leadership in Africa was serious and robust.
And so we are hopeful about Africa’s future. The course won’t necessarily be smooth or easy. But this is a continent that is looking forward.
